Wednesday, January 17, 2018

The Unbound Economy

Kenneth Rogoff

What will drive recovery from the financial crisis of 2008? Will China eventually suffer a Japanese-style hard landing after decades of rapid growth? How long can Asia’s central banks be expected to prop up the dollar? Are we heading towards a world of multiple reserve currencies? Can India replicate China’s miracle? Will the euro zone expand and further transform Europe?

A few years ago, the term “world economy” was used as shorthand for the economies of the developed world. Now, China is too big to ignore and India is poised to join it as a global player. What happens in Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a host of other countries can set stock markets everywhere trembling.

But the two engines of global growth over the past two decades – America’s huge trade deficit and China’s boom – are changing. If US consumption continues to shrink in response to the country’s indebtedness, will global growth ever revive?

With so many different regions and cultures in the mix, and an economy that never sleeps, most international economists are stumped. Indeed, few people anywhere have the knowledge and breadth of experience to analyze the world economy and give readers insight into where it is going. Kenneth RogoffHarvard Economics Professor, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and section chief at the International Finance Division of the US Federal Reserve Bank – is one of those few.

Kenneth Rogoff is a premier international economist. In addition to his experience at the IMF and the Federal Reserve, he has worked with the Bank of Japan, the Trilateral Commission, and a who’s who of economic institutions around the world. His publications span the fields of international finance, monetary policy, political budget cycles and economic development.

Policymakers everywhere have long viewed Kenneth Rogoff's expertise as indispensable to designing national and global economic policies. In his monthly series The Unbound Economy, written exclusively for Project Syndicate, Kenneth Rogoff gives readers worldwide access to the same insider’s perspective.

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26 pages