The Emerging World
Are the BRICS countries now so different from one another, and their futures so divergent, that they no longer form a coherent group? Will the steep fall in oil prices help or hurt most emerging economies? Do epidemics like Ebola pose a new threat to sustained growth?
Until the financial crisis of 2008, the rise of emerging markets seemed irresistible. First came China and the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa). Then a second wave of ambitious, recently poor countries – Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey – took flight. Today, however, most of these economies have either stalled or face hard choices in their effort to achieve developed-country status. Will they become mired in what development specialists call the “middle-income trap,” or can they replicate the success of countries like Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan?
Few people have examined developing countries’ prospects for as long and as thoroughly as Jim O’Neill. A former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, where he famously coined the term “BRICS” to mark the ascent of the world’s major emerging economies, O’Neill is recognized as one of the great currency and economic forecasters of his generation. Currently a member of Cambridge University’s Center for Rising Powers, he continues to study the economies of the BRICS and other emerging economies, and, in his role as Special Adviser to the UK Treasury, he leads an international commission investigating the increasing risk posed by anti-microbial-drug resistance.
In The Emerging World, written exclusively for Project Syndicate, Jim O’Neill examines the complex economic, financial, political, environmental, and health issues that will determine the fate of the world’s developing countries. Informed, clear-sighted, and wide-ranging, Jim O’Neill writes with the practiced eye of someone who cannot afford to get his judgments wrong.
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