Wednesday, January 17, 2018

2013 Year End Series

PS The Year Ahead, 2014

In 2013, many of the certainties and expectations of recent years were upended. The rising tide of emerging-market growth has gone out, led by ebbing performance in Brazil, China, India, and Russia. The hopes raised by the Arab Awakening of 2011 mostly vanished, with Egypt reverting brutally to military rule, while Syria’s civil war reduced the country to a moral wilderness in which no weapons are off limits. In Europe, the ongoing crisis threatened to undo decades of efforts to secure “ever closer union,” while political polarization in the United States seemed to render the world’s largest economy ungovernable.

Yet some reversals took countries, regions, and economies in positive directions. Japan’s “Abenomics” reforms appear to have broken the grip of two decades of stagnation. In the US, shale gas has so lowered energy costs that manufacturing industries are returning, with confidence for the economy’s long-term prospects at levels unseen since the 1960’s. And Iran’s new president appears determined to end his country’s nuclear standoff with the West.

In 2013: Reversing Gears, Project Syndicate’s special year-end supplement, the world’s leading economists, policymakers, political leaders, strategic thinkers, and public intellectuals provide an exclusive, sharp-eyed look at the last 12 months – and compelling analyses of the trends that will shape events in 2014. Will Europe’s crisis lead to an institutional breakthrough or fuel dissolution? Can China’s leadership keep the country’s economy – and its strategic ambitions – on an even keel? Will America’s political dysfunction undermine global recovery? What can poor countries expect from the next global development agenda?

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